Dumblebore and the 2010 Budget

Dumblebore presenting HM Government's 2010 Budget

I know, that's silly. Dumbledore had more convincing eyebrows than Alistair Darling. But Professor Trelawney's crystal ball may have been consulted to predict our economic future (too far?). Seriously though, the budget is all black magic to me.

Take for example something you think would be a simple fact: the value of this years Scottish budget and the change from last year. Not so, it's election year!

John Swinney, SNP Finance Secretary: “our overall budget is falling in real terms in the forthcoming year for the first time since devolution.”

Jim Murphy, Labour Scottish Secretary: "Next year the Scottish Government will have the highest ever budget - more than double what
Donald Dewar had."

How can they be getting this from the same figures? I tried some investigation with mixed results (any help would be appreciated!).

According to the budget planned ‘departmental’ spending limit for Scotland 2010-2011: £26.2 billion (resource) £3.2 billion (capital) [total - £29.4 billion]. The 2009 estimate spending limit for Scotland: £25.6 billion (resource) £3.9 billion (capital) [total £29.5 billion].

By my reckoning this represents a £100 million drop in cash terms or (if we take into account inflation at 2%) a drop of £2.1 billion in real terms. This doesn't take into account the "barnett consequentials" (extra money given to Scotland in line with extra policy spending in England) which total £82 million but it would still represent a big drop.

This would vindicate the SNP's argument if my figures are right. Any help anyone can give would be great.

The issue I have with this isn't really that we're spending less overall - that can be justified in such a severe recession - but that the Scottish Government cannot chose for itself where it wants to see cuts, it just gets its "paypacket". With full fiscal powers balancing the budget would be up to the Scottish Government - if we want to find extra money for a particular scheme we find it ourselves.

This view is so widely held in Scotland it boggles the mind and yet the UK Government, far from supporting such an idea, spends millions every year on the Scotland Office which is primarily focused on arguing against fiscal autonomy/devolution max or independence.