Dancing Round a May (the 6th?) Poll

Election season has started and the pollsters are busy already, sensing a tight election.

Two polls have been published in the last two days which are particularly interesting:

POLL 1: There is no doubt that Sunday's opinion poll published by the Scotland on Sunday makes bad reading for the SNP. They seem to have lost around 4% since the beginning of the year and are now 17% points behind Labour on Westminster voting intentions.  But lets put this in context: Labour are polling 1% less than they did in the 2005 election, the LibDems 8% less and the SNP and Tories are up by 3% and 4%. Not a disaster for Salmond but a big setback considering the SNP's record highs in the polls in recent years - it certainly stymies his chances of 20 SNP MPs.

The real success story is the Tories who are now pushing for second place (only 1% point behind the SNP), remarkable considering their years in the Scottish political wilderness. However, there is a simple explanation for both their boost and the SNP's fall-back that SoS avoided. Namely, the success of both Labour and the Tories in marginalising the SNP in the election. Both parties have made a point of avoiding the SNP at all costs, a clever strategy that seems to be working. This coupled with a bad few weeks for Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon means a slump in the polls.

POLL 2: The Scotsman publishes the first poll on independence since the SG announced it's Referendum Bill. Although no figures were published online, the article claims it shows "an overall drop in support for independence" whereas Nicola Sturgeon argues "The poll actually shows a similar level of support for this independence question as the last YouGov poll in November". The actual figures are a drop of 2% in support (to 27%) AND a 2% drop in votes against, with an increase in "don't knows". This may reveal that the SNP National Conversation is getting people to question their beliefs on the subject but the numbers are to small to draw any conclusions.

The key finding of the poll however is that 31% of those surveyed said that a Tory victory would make them more likely to vote for independence. That this is true is no surprise, the surprise is the size of this figure. It will bring comfort to Salmond and his strategy of holding off till after the election.

The hope is that more polls on independence will be conducted soon to gauge the affect (if any) of the SG latest proposals.