Don't Mention the Referendum!

The other big issue dominating Holyrood today has been the Scottish Government's decision to delay the independence Referendum Bill till at least the summer. A "draft" Bill will instead be published in the next week or so which will open up a public consultation on it. Having already been delayed, it was expected that the Referendum Bill would have been brought before parliament by now. It has been suggested that the decision to announce it today was due to the debacle over "Fraudgate" (see previous post). Whether this is true or not is irrelevant, it was going to come sooner or later.

The most important consideration in this change of timing seems to be the general election, expected in May this year. Since the opposition parties, and importantly the LibDems, have shown no movement on this issue, this is a sensible decision. Talking about independence in the lead up to the election would have been problematic. For a start it's the one thing that unites the other parties in Scotland against the SNP so they could all "gang up" against them. That's if they even acknowedge the SNP in the election - both Labour and the Tories have made it clear that they intend to ignore them, saying the election is a straight fight between themselves.

Also, the SNPs best argument for independence, which will resonate well with the Scottish electorate, is that independence will 'protect' them from a Tory government. But during the general election they can't say this, it'll sound like they expect a Tory victory and may even want one. After the election, however, which will probably be a victory for the Tories, the SNP can use this argument to their hearts content.

This leads to another good reason to wait: a Tory victory will mean lots of Scottish Labour politicians looking to gather power for themselves. If they think they will win power at Holyrood they'll be wanting more powers to prevent Tory interference. So maybe the opposition will move towards the SNPs position, prodded along by public opinion gathered through the public consultation announced today.

Today's announcement, however, must be seen as a setback for the SNP, they would have hoped to have had some sort of movement or openness on a multi-option referendum by now. No such movement has happened.